How many people will live in northern New Jersey 10 years from now? How about 25 years in the future? Which counties and towns will experience the most growth? How many jobs will there be in the region? How will all these factors affect our transportation system? And how will the transportation investment decisions we make affect these trends?
The NJTPA is undertaking an ambitious project that seeks to answer these and related questions. This effort will produce forecasts of future population and employment that will be critical pieces of information used to guide transportation planning and investment decisions in the NJTPA region.
This work also will create tools to be used in future forecasting and scenario-building efforts. Draft forecasts should be completed by Feb. 2004 and final forecasts by the end of Apr. 2004.
Creating up-to-date forecasts that are as accurate as possible is a critical task. These forecasts are used as a basis for transportation studies and in updating the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) for northern New Jersey, the region’s long-range blueprint for transportation investment. The next update of the RTP will be released in 2005.
In addition, the forecasts underpin a number of other NJTPA products that are reflected in the RTP. These include air quality work, investment strategy, regional and corridor analyses, strategy evaluation, performance measurement, transportation disaster response efforts, and an environmental justice analysis of the region.
A key aspect of this study is coordination with other agencies, many of which do forecasts of their own. By coordinating with these other efforts, the NJTPA plans to develop forecasts that will provide a common foundation for planning activities and future forecasting in the region.
The Louis Berger Group, Inc. of East Orange has been retained as the prime consultant for this project, while CHPlanning (Philadelphia) and EcoNorthwest (Seattle) have been retained as subconsultants.
The NJTPA’s web page, www.njtpa.org, will provide periodic updates on this project, as well as draft products for public review as they become available.
For further information about the forecasting and model development initiative, contact David Heller, NJTPA Central Staff Forecasting Project Manager, at 973-639-8429 or daveh@njtpa.org.
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Planners and engineers from throughout northern New Jersey met Nov. 13 to learn key information on how changing functional classifications could affect roadways throughout the region.
The information session was hosted by the NJTPA to provide an overview of the 2000 Draft Functional Classification Update. The New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT) and its consultant, Michael Baker Associates, conducted the session.
Functional Classification is a federally mandated process that groups streets and highways into a system according to the type of service they provide for urban and rural areas. The Urban Boundary, defined by the 2000 Census and further refined by NJDOT, determines whether a roadway is classified as rural or urban. In both areas, the roadway classes include interstates, arterials, collectors, and local streets. Interstates and arterials mainly provide regional mobility, while local streets and collectors provide local access.
How a particular street or highway is classified has implications regarding federal funding and the NJTPA’s Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) project prioritization process, but the primary effect of functional classification is on road design guidelines.
At the meeting, Will Day and Anthony Varone of NJDOT presented an overview of the functional classification update process. Kirk Weaver and Lee Brancheau from Michael Baker Associates went into more detail about the methods used to update the classification and answered questions about the data.
Planners and engineers from the NJTPA region participated in the session to find out more about how updates to the system would affect their roadways. Representatives from the FHWA and other agencies also attended. Participants were given maps of the draft update and asked to provide comments back to the NJTPA within the next few weeks.
The deadline for comments is Jan. 15, 2004. NJDOT will respond to the comments and make the appropriate adjustments in classification by mid-February of next year, after which the NJTPA Board will review and approve the final version in March. FHWA approval is expected by Apr. 15, 2004.
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The NJTPA has completed an analysis of 2000 Census data regarding daily commutations among the 13 counties in the northern New Jersey region and work trip flows to and from nearby counties in New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania. These data are compiled from the Census long form, which asks respondents about their work commute activity during the Census week, typically the first week of April. The report is available for download at the NJTPA’s website www.njtpa.org.
During the Census week, about 46 percent of the NJTPA region’s population, or nearly 3 million people, went to work. While about 84,000 residents worked at home (2.8% of workers), the rest made work trips throughout the commutershed and beyond.
About 2.5 million NJTPA residents went to work at a job located inside the NJTPA region. They were joined by an inflow of about 240,000 workers from other locations, making the NJTPA region the destination for more than 2.7 million workers.
Some other key findings from Census 2000 include:
• A little more than one out of every two working residents in the NJTPA region work in their home county.
• One in four residents commute to an adjacent county in New Jersey, with nearly all staying in the NJTPA region.
• About one in ten residents commute to New York City.
• There has been a continued dispersion of work destinations and a lengthening of commutes in all parts of the region over the last two decades.
• There also has been a continuing shift of commuting activity to suburban areas and away from the heavily populated northeastern "core" of the region which includes major cities.
• From 1990 to 2000, Morris, Somerset, Ocean, Middlesex and Monmouth counties realized the largest increases in the number of commutes to jobs within their borders indicating a strong and growing economic base in these counties.
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Gaining increased rail capacity across the Hudson River by constructing a new tunnel to New York Penn Station is among the NJTPA's "top regional priorities," according to Peter Palmer, NJTPA Vice Chairman and Somerset County Freeholder.
Freeholder Palmer delivered this message to a meeting on Dec. 8 in Newark which was held to solicit input on the commencement of an environmental study of the Access to the Region's Core (ARC) project. ARC will involve building a new tunnel to accommodate the projected long-term growth in demand for rail travel to Manhattan.
Freeholder Palmer noted that with recent upgrades to the rail network in northern New Jersey "thousands of new commuters have been attracted to the rail network, urban housing markets have been strengthened and economic development has blossomed around once neglected rail hubs."
However, he cautioned "without the added trans-Hudson capacity to be provided by ARC, the renaissance of rail commuting that has been taking place in northern New Jersey will be brought to a halt – with potentially devastating impacts for the entire bi-state region."
The environmental study of ARC, known as a Draft Environmental Impact Statement, will examine two alternatives. More information on the study is available at www.accesstotheregionscore.org or 877-272-0999.
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The NJTPA’s Subregional Study Program – which analyzes regional accessibility and mobility issues, and helps fund investments that are consistent with the NJTPA’s Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) – is off to a strong start in Fiscal Year 2004. Eleven proposals previously approved by the NJTPA Board of Trustees are all underway.
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Traffic Congestion on I-287 will be the focus of the Somerset/Middlesex county study.
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This past summer, at the request of the NJTPA’s Regional Technical Advisory Committee (RTAC), the subregions were resolicited for additional proposals to use unallocated funds. The peer Review Committee elected by RTAC recommended two additional proposals for funding, the Monmouth County Asbury Park Transportation Improvement Study and the Passaic County Transportation and Smart Growth Strategy Evaluation Model, both of which are scheduled to start Jan. 1, 2004.
The 13 studies being funded in FY 2004-2005 (as highlighted below) total nearly $1.6 million in matched federal funds.
Bergen County: Enhancing Access and Mobility Along the Kinderkamack Road/Pascack Valley Intermodal Corridor
The purpose of this study is to identify mobility, accessibility, safety and quality-of-life improvements along Kinderkamack Road (County Route 503), a major north-south commercial thoroughfare.
Hudson County: Northern Hudson County Bicycle and Pedestrian Study
This study will analyze and evaluate pedestrian and bicycle conditions in Guttenberg, North Bergen, Union City, Weehawken and West New York.
Hunterdon County: Bikeway Implementation Plan, Southwestern Loop
The purpose of this study is to advance bicycling in Hunterdon County by analyzing the transportation system and making recommendations for current and future bicycle compatibility.
Jersey City: The Grand Jersey, Morris Canal & Liberty Harbor Regional Access Study
This study will examine alternatives to improve regional access to major destinations in and around Liberty State Park as well as circulation in the area.
Middlesex County: Route 18 Pedestrian Crossing Study
The purpose of this study is to improve existing problem areas along a commercialized section of Route 18 between Route 516 and Naricon Place.
Monmouth County: State Route 33 Corridor Study
This study will develop a corridor improvement plan to maintain and/or improve accessibility and mobility and mitigate congestion in this growing corridor.
Monmouth County: The Asbury Park Transportation Improvement Study
This project involves a comprehensive transportation study that supports numerous redevelopment efforts currently underway in Asbury Park.
Morris County: Circulation Element & Transportation Model Development
This proposal continues work started in FY 2003 to update the Circulation Element of the county’s master plan. Simultaneously, the county will develop a computer model geared toward addressing the planning goals and strategies identified in the NJTPA’s RTP.
Passaic County: The Transportation and Smart Growth Strategy Evaluation Model
This study will develop and implement a set of transportation modeling/simulation tools for assessing performance measures in response to development and transportation system changes.
Somerset County: Transportation Oriented Development (TOD) Opportunities in Somerset County
This study will identify two to three pilot TOD sites along Somerset County’s two rail corridors and busiest bus corridors with emphasis on Routes 22, 27, 28 and 202.
Somerset/Middlesex Counties: I-287 Raritan River Crossings Mobility Enhancement Implementation Plan
This study will build on a joint project initiated by both counties and NJDOT to advance short- and long-term strategies to address congestion at the I-287 interchanges in Franklin (Somerset) and Piscataway (Middlesex) townships.
Union County: Community Shuttle Efficiency Project
The purpose of this study is to develop viable technical operating plans to maximize the effectiveness of three new shuttles serving Union County train stations through shared or regionalized services.
Union County: Port Area District 151: Parking & Intermodal Facility Study
This study will develop a strategic Parking and Intermodal Facility Plan for the Port Area District 151, located in eastern Union County.
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A consultant has been selected to lead an alternatives analysis study that will consider the use of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in the busy Route 1 corridor in central New Jersey. The study will build on the ongoing work of the Central New Jersey Transportation Forum, a regional planning coalition that includes the NJTPA.
STV Inc. of New York City was approved as consultant for the approximately $600,000 study at NJ Transit’s November board meeting. NJ Transit will serve as lead agency for the effort.
The Route 1 corridor has experienced tremendous growth and increasing traffic congestion in recent years. By 2020, traffic volume is projected to increase up to 55 percent, with vehicle hours of travel rising 118 percent and roadway travel speed dropping 29 percent. There is limited public transit in the area and few alternatives to the automobile for travel.
The Forum found that a BRT system with a combination of dedicated roadways, priority for buses on major roadways and at intersections and other features could expedite travel in the area and provide a good alternative mode of travel. This study will look at the possible BRT system in greater detail.
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Longtime NJTPA Board of Trustees member and Ocean County Freeholder James J. Mancini, Sr. passed away Tuesday, Nov. 18 at Southern Ocean County Hospital in Stafford Township. Freeholder Mancini was 77.
Freeholder Mancini was first elected to the Ocean County Board of Chosen Freeholders in 1982, serving as Freeholder Director three times. He also served as Mayor of Long Beach Township since 1964. In 1972, Freeholder Mancini was elected to the state assembly, serving one term. He joined the NJTPA Board of Trustees in 1990.
In addition, Freeholder Mancini was active in many civic groups and community service organizations.
Surviving are his wife of 55 years, Madeline Klaas Mancini; three sons; six daughters; 12 grandchildren; and two great-grandchildren.
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The NJTPA is currently updating the North Jersey Regional Transportation Model (NJRTM), a computer simulation of travel patterns throughout the region. Initially developed in the mid-1980s by the New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT), the NJRTM last underwent a full-scale update in 1996.
This update of the NJRTM was initiated to take the best aspects of other travel demand models operating in the region and develop a single regional model for use by the NJTPA, NJ Transit, and NJDOT. Keith Miller, NJTPA Central Staff, is managing the project, the consultant team is led by URS Corporation, and a technical advisory committee meets regularly to ensure interagency coordination.
The initial phase of the project, expected to conclude by June 2004, focuses on expanding the model area to include counties surrounding the 13-county NJTPA region and incorporating additional transit components.
The existing NJRTM breaks the NJTPA region down into nearly 1,400 “zones” (based on 1990 Census tracts) to represent where people live and work, and where they begin and end trips throughout the day. The NJRTM also features a network of highway and transit facilities.
Through the model, the number of people and vehicles on each facility segment is estimated. In addition, a key benefit of transportation modeling is the ability to predict transportation conditions for the future, fostering more effective transportation planning and conformity with the region’s air quality
goals.
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The NJTPA on Nov. 5 co-sponsored the first of three public open house meetings on the Statewide Bicycle & Pedestrian Master Plan. Nearly 40 people attended the open house in New Brunswick, including planners and engineers, county and municipal government officials, bicycle/pedestrian advocates, police officials, and residents of the region.
New Jersey Department of Transportation officials and the project’s consultant team, led by the RBA Group, presented the draft results of Phase Two of the Statewide Bicycle & Pedestrian Master Plan. This second phase updates the goals of the original June 1995 plan (Phase One), which established a vision and a set of targets for the future of bicycling and walking in the state. Phase two provides:
• A preliminary inventory of existing bicycle facilities with a database of existing, and potential bicycle and pedestrian facilities.
• A method of prioritizing locations for bicycle and pedestrian improvements.
• A draft vision and action plan for improving bicycling and walking in New Jersey.
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At the Nov. 10 NJTPA Board of Trustees meeting, Somerset County Freeholder Peter Palmer presents Hunterdon County Freeholder Paul C. Sauerland, Jr. (left) with a plaque, as Executive Director Joel S. Weiner looks on. The plaque features a collage of photographs of Freeholder Sauerland taking part in various activities during his 10-year tenure at the NJTPA. Freeholder Sauerland, a past NJTPA Chairman and current Chairman of the Project Prioritization Committee, is retiring from elected office at the end of this year. Also at the Nov. 10 Board meeting, NJTPA Chairman Theodore J. Narozanick thanked Freeholder Sauerland for all he has done to improve transportation in Hunterdon County and the region, and then presented a formal resolution recognizing Freeholder Sauerland’s accomplishments. |
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North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, Inc.
One Newark Center, 17th Floor. Newark, NJ 07102
(973) 639-8400; Fax 639-1953
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