Working Group Meeting - December 7, 2009
The Climate Change Working Group's fifth meeting was held on December 7, 2009 at the NJTPA offices in Newark.
Joanne Potter, Senior Associate with Cambridge Systematics, was the guest speaker. Ms. Potter presented the findings of a study she managed entitled: Moving Cooler: An Analysis of Transportation Strategies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions, a national multi-sponsor study assessing the effectiveness of transportation activity and travel demand strategies to reduce mobile source greenhouse gas emissions.
Ms. Potter stated that the genesis of the Moving Cooler report grew out of the need for national-level research to examine a variety of strategies to reduce transportation-related greenhouse gases. Ms. Potter pointed out that nearly one-third of the nation’s GHG is from transportation, and about 70% of that is from surface transportation.
A diverse group of stakeholders worked on this report, including federal agencies such as the USEPA, FHWA, APTA, environmental organizations, ULI, and other foundations. The intent of the research project was to fill in a research gap and compare a variety of strategies that reduce surface transportation GHG emissions on a national level, and the cost of implementing the strategy. The project also examined what possible negative impacts could arise from a particular strategy and what equity impacts may exist.
Ms. Potter commented that the stakeholder group started out looking at 25 strategies, but it was later expanded to 50. The comprehensive list of strategies fell within one of nine (9) categories:
- Pricing, tolls, PAYD insurance, VMT fees, carbon/fuel taxes
- Land use and smart growth
- Nonmotorized transportation
- Public transportation improvements
- Regional ride-sharing, commute measures
- Regulatory measures
- Operational/ITS strategies
- Capacity/bottleneck relief
- Freight sector strategies
The study first determined a baseline trend for surface transportation GHG emissions out to 2050 using three assumptions; (1) travel will continue to increase, (2) the cost of gasoline will continue to increase, (3) and that technology will continue to improve fuel efficiency. The study concluded that, assuming the factors mentioned above, overall GHG emissions from the transportation sector will remain at current levels through 2050.
Projections were then made assuming implementation of new CAFÉ standards as proposed by the Obama administration projections for higher and lower gasoline prices, and a technological breakthrough. In all of the above projections, none were sufficient to meet the reductions proposed in the American Clean Energy and Security Act bill as adopted by the House of Representatives in Congress. The study also determined how effective each strategy is at reducing GHG according to the degree of governmental implementation.
The results from the analysis indicated that individual strategies reduce transportation-related GHG from 0.5% to 4% by 2050. Some of the more effective strategies included pricing strategies such as a VMT tax and pay-as-you-drive insurance, and some less effective strategies included Operational and ITS improvements. Ms. Potter concluded that none of these strategies are “silver bullets”, and that multiple strategies would be needed. To that end, the report analyzed the effectiveness of strategies grouped into six bundles;
- Lost Cost strategies
- Near-Term/Early Results Strategies
- Long-Term/Maximum Results
- Land Use/Nonmotorized/Public Transportation
- System and Driver Efficiency
- Facility Pricing
Ms. Potter reported that when the individual strategies are combined into bundles, meaningful reductions in GHG emissions are realized. Ms. Potter said that the maximum implementation of the strategies could yield GHG reductions of up to 24% by the year 2050. Ms. Potter said that these strategies complement the important reductions anticipated from fuel efficiency and technology advancements. Ms. Potter presented results from the System and Driver Efficiency bundle, which includes congestion pricing, transit LOS, HOV lanes, car sharing, reduced speed limits, system operations and management, and multimodal freight strategies. The analysis found an 11-12% reduction in GHG from on-road surface emissions from baseline by 2050, and a cumulative reduction of 7-9% from baseline by 2050.
Ms. Potter also reported on the analysis of the Economy-wide Pricing strategy bundle for it’s effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions. The analysis grouped carbon-pricing, VMT fee, and/or Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) insurance into the Pricing Bundle. Ms. Potter stated that such a bundle has the potential to achieve additional GHG reductions, with additional 17% reduction.
Ms. Potter commented that some strategies are effective in achieving near-term reductions, such as speed limit restrictions, while others contribute to reducing the cumulative GHG challenge in later years. Investments in land use and improved travel options take several years to implement, and thus GHG reductions are not immediately realized. Long-term reduction strategies provide long-lasting reductions. Ms. Potter commented that both types of strategies will be needed.
Ms. Potter commented that GHG reductions presented in the Moving Cooler study were based on the national level. The impacts on any given strategy or strategy bundle may be different a state, regional, or local level. Moreover, while the effect of a strategy on national emissions may be modest, many strategies contribute to other social, economic and environmental goals.
Ms. Potter concluded that additional research is needed to better address the equity implications of some strategies, particularly those related to economy-wide pricing. Ms. Potter also recommended that the analytical framework in the Moving Cooler study be applied to the regional level and a baseline established at the regional level. She stated that regionally tailored strategy bundles will need to be established specific to the development patterns and mobility needs of a particular region. Lastly, Ms. Potter recommended that GHG reduction strategies be evaluated for their effectiveness in reducing GHG.
Ms. Gian-Claudia Sciara, graduate instructor for the Graduate Transportation Planning Studio at the Bloustein School for Planning and Public Policy, summarized the research activities of the Rutgers Graduate Planning Studio of the semester. The class is charged with assisting the Climate Change Working Group and the NJTPA in exploring how climate change can be better integrated into NJTPA practices. The class presented their findings to the Climate Change Working Group, offering a variety of recommendations based on a specific work task.
MPO Best Practices:
The class surveyed the practices of select MPOs to determine the “best practices” that might be used by the NJTPA in its own operations. The class highlighted some of their findings;
- SACOG: SACOG’s use of the software tool, I-PLACE³S (Planning for Community Energy, Environmental, and Economic Sustainability) in their long-range transportation and land use study. Using I-PLACE³S in its planning for the SACOG Blueprint, the MPO has involved a wide range of stakeholders in the planning process, and simulated discussion of potential development outcomes. The program allows users to input community characteristics such as growth predictions and housing trends and see a depiction of the consequences of those characteristics on a computer screen.
- DVRPC: DVRPC’sTransitChek program, an employee benefits program, encourages commuters to use mass transit services and high occupancy vehicles, providing an incentive to reduce single occupant vehicle use and the associated emissions.
In terms of adapting regional transportation systems for anticipated climate changes, the class determined that many MPOs are still in the preliminary stages of taking steps toward addressing climate change adaptation in their long-range plans.
Climate Change in the Project Prioritization Process:
The class evaluated the NJTPA’s project prioritization process, analyzing the integration of climate change concerns into current practices at this basic level of NJTPA responsibility. Their findings and recommendations include;
- Many climate change-related scoring factors are in place, but they are weighted based on their regional importance independent of climate change. Building extra points into these factors remedies that issue.
- There is difficulty in compelling greater data reporting from member jurisdictions and agencies. The class recommends a focus on expanding current programs with a high compliance rate in providing technical information on projects. (i.e. TCAM)
- The class concluded that the most effective way to make sure climate change concerns are reflected in final funding decisions is by making climate change a priority for the PPC. The most effective way to make it a priority is through education.
Greenhouse Gas Inventory for small airports:
The class explored various methods for determining GHG emissions of smaller airports. Their findings and recommendations include;
- Aviation accounts for a growing contribution to GHG output with commercial aviation accounting for approximately 11% of transportation-related GHG emissions
- General aviation accounts for a smaller percentage, but regional and state GHG inventories largely have not addressed them, focusing rather on large commercial airports.
- The class evaluated existing inventory and allocation methodologies and performed an inventory for case study airports in NJTPA region.
- The class determined GHG emissions for three local airports within the NJTPA region; Morristown Municipal, Essex County, Central Jersey Regional
- The class found that calculating GHG emissions from local airports poses a number of difficulties, including; lack of quality operations data and the unavailability of fuel sales data.
- Concluded that local and regional airports constitute a minor yet significant amount of GHG emissions in the aviation sector within the region.
Climate Change in Subregional Corridor Studies:
The class reviewed how climate change concerns are currently reflected in the current guidelines for selecting subregional studies. The class made the following findings;
- Many guidelines could be made more specific and that stated goals of the Subregional Transportation Planning program (STP) are not assigned concrete weights during the evaluation of proposals.
- Although climate change concerns are noted in the STP guidelines, there is little incentive for subregional studies to focus on such concerns, as there is no added scoring benefit to having addressed adaptation or mitigation strategies.
- The class recommends that adaptation and mitigation strategies be allotted a specific amount of points in the STP proposal assessment form in order to ensure that climate change concerns are addressed in subregional studies.
Analyzing Regional Transportation Vulnerabilities:
The class explored the possible impacts of climate change vulnerabilities within the NJTPA region and described the need for why a vulnerability analysis of the region’s transportation infrastructure is needed.
The class also presented the necessary steps and organizational structures that would facilitate incorporation of adaptation measures and vulnerability analyses in planning, including;
- Data management is a key component to completing a vulnerability analysis.
- Protocol development;
- Stakeholder outreach;
- Data collection and management on the location, structural strength and integrity of transportation infrastructure;
- Assessing the exposure of the infrastructure;
- Evaluating the resiliency, redundancy and use of the systems; and
- Creating a scoring system that would aggregate these variables and produce a score for each infrastructure component in the region.
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For More Information
Resources and documents relating to climate change are at right. For more information or to participate in the working group, contact Jeffrey Perlman at 973-639-8445 or jperlman@njtpa.org.